Oliver Heald
To ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department, what assessment Frontex has made of the risk of irregular migration into the EU in 2011; and how many asylum applications it recorded in the Southern European countries of the EU in (a) 2009 and (b) 2010.
Damian Green
The Frontex Annual Risk Analysis 2011 report published in May 2011 proposes that regular passenger flows across the external EU borders will increase in 2011 due to rising global mobility, possible visa-liberalisation procedures for the EU's eastern European partners and new local border-traffic agreements along the eastern borders.
Frontex assess the most likely high-pressure points for illegal border-crossings in 2011-2012 will be along the Mediterranean coast and the land border with Turkey. Migrants with relatively easy access to Turkey or North Africa will continue to typify the flow.